The following is a discussion (conducted via e-mail) about a story background I've been playing with.
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Details of a typical Habitat -
A habitat is a cylinder 25 km long by 10 km in diameter rotating at 10 m/sec. There are several layers to this typical habitat. Inward from the outer 20 meters of regolith is what the locals call “the ocean”. This is 150 meters of water; there are baffles and a number of other internal devices to keep this water from “sloshing”. The primary purpose of this water (aside providing water for sewage treatment and the basis of the ecosystem) is radiation shielding.
Inward from the water, after another 5 meters of surface area, are the maintenance spaces. These are the actual industrial plants of the habitat, where most of the people are employed. Unlike on Earth, nanotechnology is heavily used (it is forbidden on Earth, but the elites use the products of nanotech), which means most of the people monitor what is going on. This allows the area to be only 20 meters “deep”.
Inward of that are the actual “infrastructure” layers, generally called the “maintenance” areas, another 5 meters of piping, conduits, cables, and all of the other things needed to maintain life.
Inward still further are the 25 “living layers” where people live. The base gravity at the lowest level is 10 meters/sec2, or 1 Standard G (the joke among engineers is that Earth has 0.98 standard G).
Inward, or above the “living layers”, are the “farming layers”, and above that, the surface. The surface does have a large number of open areas, mainly used for recreation. To date, all attempts to build there for status purposes have been summarily turned down.
Each layer is nominally 5 meters high. The surface is part of the atmosphere generation system, and is given over to high capacity plant life converting waste and CO2 into O2 and Nitrogen, etc. It also provides an “outdoors” necessary to the mental well-being of the population.
At each end of the cylinder are separate docking and transportation facilities (how are transportation needs met?) for the industrial plants. Brin and the other habitats in the area are heavily involved in mining, most of it telesourced. There are various laboratories around the habitats; most research done in them is telesourced, however there are those where physical presence is needed.
Brin Habitat is one of five habitats currently in the Leading Earth Trojan position. It is the home to 1.5 million people divided into 60 “towns” of 125,000 each. Brin Habitat has a capacity of 2.14 million people, figured at 10 square meters/person.
Government - Brin, like the other habitats, is not necessarily a democracy. Each habitat is allowed to develop the kind of government it wants, within the Compact (which has a meeting every so often that is a cross between a debating society and a parliament of sorts). The Compact spells out the specific duties of government. Duties beyond that are explicitly and expressly forbidden, though some of the courts are always trying to find new interpretations. These are subject to a review process, and justices who propose interpretations that repeatedly fail are dismissed from their position.
Internal disputes are settled with a court system (those justices); however “other methods” are allowed so long as there is no loss of life (alert! - story idea!). This has resulted in a number of innovative methods, mostly involving low-levels of physical violence. Brin Habitat is unique in that their accepted method involves single combat with rattan “swords” and wooden shields (alert! - story idea! - SCA). Combat is until one combatant is unconscious or “yields” the point. There are “champions” for rent who will do combat for a person if that person has been judged to be too ill or otherwise unable to contest in the field. (alert! - story idea!). There have even been suggestions of a mass combat to settle disputes between communities.
Inward of Brin and the others are a number of satellites that monitor the solar weather. This is to provide early warning of solar storms, as well as to conduct research.
Contact between the habitats. This occurs frequently (i.e. regular shuttle service) within a local volume (such as the Leading Earth Trojan Position, or LETJ. A lot of the time there’s teleconferencing, but there is a regular movement of people through all of the local habitats.
Contact with Earth - Visitors from Earth have to go through a central reception station in NEO where they are carefully searched, and then transported to a habitat in lunar orbit. Violation of many of the import rules can result in either a return to Earth or other place of origin, incarceration, or execution. Hard experience has shown that draconian measures are better than a laissez-faire system (alert! - story idea!). A complete medical check up, and time in a nanotube to make sure there aren’t any nasty surprises being transported in the visitor’s bloodstream are mandatory. Failure to comply is punishable by a minimum of a return to Earth.
Contact with other habitats - a lot more frequent than people think, with travel to nearby holding stations and complete medical check-ups to prevent nasty surprises from occurring. This includes regularly scheduled service on ships (alert! - story idea!). These ships are to be explained if necessary.
Building of new habitats - this is an on-going process (alert! - story idea!). The existence of these (and their building) is a bone of contention with some of the people on Earth. The attitude of the people on the habitats is that it is ‘none of their @#$#@! business (alert! - story idea!).
Other Habitats - there are over a hundred habitats scattered around the Sol System. The farthest out habitats are currently in the leading and trailing Trojan Jovian positions. There are a pair of habitats in the leading Venus Trojan positions (nicknamed Venus Equilateral by some). There is one in the trailing Earth-Luna Trojan position. There are the remains of one in the leading Earth-Luna Trojan position, destroyed by someone on Earth, which has led to the severe limiting of contact with Earth’s surface by the population of the habitats. There are several habitats around Mars. They run a lot of the mining and research on that planet.
There are research facilities on Mars. There are several other research facilities on the side of Luna away from Earth (the people and governments of Earth don’t know about these). The model here are the Moties. Civilization is flourishing off Earth, despite Earth. The habitats provide those facilities and needs that contact with Earth now denies them (alert! - story idea!).
The habitats are loosely allied with each other (though there are tensions) (alert! - story idea!). They are all joint signers/guarantors of The Compact. Contact with Earth is limited. There is very limited use of space in NEO, all by governments on Earth (model - the Eight Worlds of Ophiuchi Hotline).
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Colin’s comments: “Disposing of waste” in the “ocean” layer is a non-starter. There is simply no need for that concept. Nanotech and biotech and other solutions will totally reprocess all “waste” to the point where there is no such thing as waste, just different classes of recycle.
The “ocean” is as much a part of the environment as the “surface” and possibly much more so, depending on what life forms are encouraged in the aquasphere.
Yes, there will be lots of industry in various microgravity levels on the habitat. Remember that gravity will increase nearer the ocean. The “bottom” of the ocean might be 1 gravity or even more, depending on the rate of rotation.
There will, however, be MUCH more industry outside the habitat than there is inside the habitat. Very low to almost no gravity is one of the production advantages of the habitats. Hard vacuum is another VERY important production advantage. Direct sunlight 24 x 7 is another important advantage. All of that stays outside the habitat unless something very bad happens.
Communication with Earth CANNOT be limited. Truly massive telecommunications, teleoperations, GPS and other “noncontact” activities are an absolute requirement. Without them, the habitats cannot sustain a functional economy. Don’t forget the System Wide Web. It will be vital and the habitats cannot survive without it. Of course, this means a LOT of cut-outs and other draconian computer security measures. The capability for locking out most Earth communications must exist, at various degrees of totality, in many habitat industrial, financial, governmental and other IT shops. Life support IT should be massively redundant and isolated from all outside communications.
Shipping product from Earth to the habitats and from the habitats to Earth will be another truly massive activity. Again, the habitats cannot sustain a functional economy without this. It is absolutely required. Of course, that means safety and other security precautions that make “draconian” look like a pink tea party. Don’t even think about describing the paperwork required to authorize and certify import of any new organic compound. Of course, it has to happen, so there is a huge, relatively efficient, mostly effective technical/administrative group that manages this. Mistakes can be hilarious, or fatal, or both.
Travel from Earth to the habitats and from the habitats to Earth will be huge. Tourism in particular must be enormous. However much they might like to, the people who live on the habitats cannot avoid this. Again, they cannot sustain a functional economy without it. Tourism is one of the founding principles of space exploitation and the original purpose of several of the habitats in the Earth-Luna region. The dollars involved simply cannot be shut down.
In-migration and out-migration will also be huge. No matter how well-developed the system of education, the populations of the habitats simply cannot provide an adequate supply of trained personnel. Where the various governments of Earth suffer from massive unemployment issues, habitat governments and habitat industries suffer from chronic labor shortages, often in critical specialties. There is no way to avoid this. Security and safety precautions for this aspect of habitat existence will be...quite novel. Incidentally, various Earth governments will literally be furious with various habitats for many instances of “stealing” their best people.
“Yes, a view of the Olympic Mountains is pretty. Imagine waking up to a view of, or FROM Olympus Mons. Of course, our employees also enjoy full spectrum nanohealth ASSURANCE benefits vested upon signature of your employment contract....”
Don’t try to lock down contact between Earth and the various space colonies. That cannot work. Not just technically, but economically, socially and politically it cannot work. Just look at the current border issues between Mexico and us. A wall would help. Enforcement of existing laws would help more. Locking it all down would be a disaster, infinitely more painful to American industry, society and government than leaving the border wide open.
Besides, there are MANY story opportunities in the friction.
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Bruce’s Reply
As for the sewage disposal, it is recycled. Dumping it in the “ocean” is a non-starter. But you need water to recycle waste. That is the source.
As for physical contact with Earth, it is strictly limited for the ones farther out; mainly for security reasons. I postulate statist societies on Earth. Things are strictly controlled. I don’t postulate how. Given that, there is contact, but it flows through NEO. By the time a visitor gets to the others, he has gone through several several inspections, checks, etc. And the local authorities are still suspicious of these people, assuming they are up to no good unless proven otherwise. The reference to the destroyed one is an indirect reference to an Earth-originated terrorist act, or was it a criminal act? Anyway, 300,000+ people died in moments. There were survivors, but the person or people on Earth who were responsible have never been identified. You have an optimistic view, I take (at least for this background) a much darker one (hence the reference to Varley’s Ophiuchi Hotline).
Non-physical contact is prevalent, as well as shipping things down in the Earth’s gravity well. Shipping things upwards is a lot more limited (politics makes people stupid - saying from the Habitats).
As for education, given that there are 80 million++ people off Earth (the true number is not known to the people on Earth), and the people know that their survival depends upon knowledge (as well as energy and microgravity), they are not shy about research.
In the past there was tourism. This reflects much farther than that. Note I did not settle on a date. That was deliberate.
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Colin replies:
Have you read Ray Kurzweil's latest book yet?
"The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology"
If not, doing so will provide useful information.
I don't believe it is possible to write believable "hard" science fiction about a "near" future, even a future only fifty years from now, without including some appreciation of the enormous impact of exponential technological growth. This is different from the circumstances of science fiction authors fifty years ago. They were on the trailing end of the long, slow curve before the inflection point. We are much nearer, or actually on the inflection point. Ahead of us is a very steep upward slope....
The background you are beginning to create requires an infrastructure that cannot be established in less than fifty years, probably more like one hundred years. It does not matter what the actual year(s) might be, the story still must account for not less than fifty and probably more like one hundred years of exponential technological growth between 2007 and 2107.
By 2107 the communications, transportation, power generation, computing, and many other technologies of Earth and Space will have advanced to a level that enables MANY individuals to engage in most of the activities currently arrogated unto governments and large corporations. Individuals will collect their own energy and materials, construct their own residential infrastructure, implement their own recycling systems, manage their own health, finances, international brokering, legal representation, etcetera. This will happen through intermediaries that are software-driven, but the software will be superior to human intelligence and infinitely replicable. Not only is your lawyer not any better than my lawyer, your lawyer is identical to my lawyer, and to the judge and to the jury, and they all have instantaneous access to the entire detailed history of every lawsuit from Hammurabi onwards.
This is not optimism. This is extrapolation from existing hardware, development and research. This is what makes it so difficult for me to write science fiction about today and tomorrow. I'm just picky enough that I want to get the backstory mostly correct, or at least believable. That is now an immense and exceedingly difficult job to get right. Whether the next twenty years are bloodier than we can imagine or utterly utopian is now completely irrelevant. The exponential growth of existing technology will proceed regardless. It may proceed in Yokohama, or Shengzhou or Mombai instead of Detroit, Lyons and Hamburg, but it will proceed, and it will do so at a continuously accelerating rate. This has direct and unavoidable implications for "hard" science fiction stories focused in the near future.
1) Water is no longer a requirement for recycling waste. Plasma torches today break down any molecule to much simpler molecules and simple atoms. Biotech and nanotech will soon do the same, with less process heat and more efficiency. There are applications where our very limited and obsolete sewage treatment technology makes water an inexpensive and useful component of contemporary waste management systems. That might also be true for future habitats, but I very much expect not. Imagine nanotech and biotech that processes some waste before it even leaves your body. More nanotech and biotech lines the "tubes" of future recycling systems. Most "waste" never leaves the residence or workplace where it is generated. Waste is made of carbon and iron and copper and other infinitely reconfigurable atoms. Transportation costs energy and time, both of which are expensive. Desktop fabrication, diversified power generation and other technologies available today have already begun to capture some of the sewage stream. It won't be long before they and similar technologies claim all of it.
3) The 300,000 casualties of the destroyed habitat are likely to be a small fraction of the annual casualties to terrorist bombs, gas, biological, computer and other attacks on Earth. That total number of terrorist casualties will continue to be, as it is today, significantly smaller than the casualties due to transportation accidents, street crime, disease, weather and other everyday calamities. Life goes on. Sensible and nonsensical precautions are taken. Commerce continues, tourism continues, communications continue.
4) I agree that habitats further away from Earth are quite capable of limiting physical contact. They will suffer painful economic, social and administrative penalties for doing so. I'm arguing basic functionality costs here, not explicit directed punishments, although there may be some of those, too. Economies and societies and governments are extremely complex systems. I flatly do not believe it is possible for them to function, much less flourish, in isolation. The ongoing economic, social and political catastrophe that is Muslim culture today perfectly sustains this arguement. So does North Korea. The more successful they are in driving other cultures to sever contacts with them, the more dismal and hopeless their conditions become. Eventually, the deluge will come.
5) A population of 80 million is not sufficient to produce the diversity required to enable modern technological society. If you do some digging on the Web you will discover that a base population of 1 billion is much closer to the required minimum. This is not a function of filling out the ranks in a regiment. In order to produce brains with the right combination of skills, preferences, capabilities and experience for multiprocessor parallel multitasking software creation or magnetic manipulation nanobotanical gene expression design, you need VARIETY. A number as small as 80 million is much too small. The habitats will need random access to the entire population of Earth.
6) Tourism does not go away. Ever. The only significant reduction in tourism is war, and I would argue that war is frequently tourism by another venue. "Join the Navy! See the Solar System!" is not only a predictor of near-term expansion in out-migration from Earth, it is an even stronger predictor of future out-migration.
I don't have much patience for "dark" future stories. Not because they lack optimism, but because they don't function. The author has to cut out so much normal social, financial and political activity to keep the plot manageable that the backstory falls flat on its face, DOA. That does not mean there won't be actual examples of "dark" fiction futures. North Korea and Iran are certainly adequate data points to support a potential future with much wider nasty impact. They still don't function, and future technology will be utterly destructive to their current support systems.
Imagine what a few million solar-powered "one laptop per child" airdrops into North Korea might accomplish today. Remember, OLPC comes with peer-to-peer wireless networking and a digital camera.
I don't even need desktop fabrication to argue successfully that OLPC will be much less expensive and much more powerful, rugged, capable, etcetera, five years from now. We have both seen that trend in pocket calculators during our lifetimes. What does that enhanced capability do to regimes like North Korea and Iran? How will they deal with pocket computers far more powerful and much better networked than today's desktop machines?
We will see, soon enough.
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A final word -
I suppose I could say something like "my playground, my sand, my rules". That, at least is the way I feel. The points, I think that need to be made, are:
- optimism vs. pessimism. While I worry about the alliance of Islamofascism with the Luddites (they're called Greens by most people), I am more worried by the Sir Humphrey Applebey's of the world (read Yes, Minister, and Yes Prime Minister to see who and what I mean. Space has no place in his world. It will be Civil Serviced out of existence, just the way the SSTO was with the X-31. That is in the background of my story idea. Colin is optimistic that technology will triumph. I think it'll be a damned hard road.
- stories are about people. You posit the location/background/idea, and you write the story that could only happen there. That's what this is. It is, in the end, just a story.
- I do not attempt to predict the future, though you might get that from #1 above. I don't believe I can. Kassandra can predict a range of futures, but because of Apollo's Curse, nobody will believe her if she tells them. Does she believe herself? Now that is an interesting debating point.
- Space is the most resource rich environment we know.
All that said, this background needs more development, but there are several stories there.
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